ISLAMABAD: Pakistan could unlock up to Rs. 9.7 trillion in economic value by 2030 through large-scale digital transformation and artificial intelligence adoption, according to a new policy proposal prepared ahead of the upcoming federal budget.
The proposal estimates the value at around $34.9 billion and says most of the untapped potential lies in small and medium-sized enterprise-driven sectors, including manufacturing, retail, healthcare, and logistics. Without targeted government intervention, the report warns, this value may remain largely unrealised.
To accelerate adoption, the proposal recommends the creation of a Rs. 3 billion National AI Adoption Fund, structured as a matching-grant programme specifically for SMEs.
“Without an adoption fund, that value remains theoretical,” the report noted.
Under the proposed framework, eligible SMEs would receive government support covering up to 40 percent of verified AI implementation costs, capped at Rs. 5 million per firm. To qualify, companies must be registered, tax-compliant, and employ fewer than 500 workers.
AI implementation would be carried out through firms registered with the Pakistan Software Export Board or through certified technology partners, ensuring quality control and compliance with national standards.
The proposal outlines strict verification and accountability requirements. Eligible expenses would be limited to AI software licenses, system integration services, training from approved providers, and hardware directly linked to deployment. All claims would be subject to third-party audit certification, along with periodic spot checks.
Participating companies would also be required to submit baseline operational data before receiving funding, followed by a 12-month impact report. These reports would measure improvements in areas such as cost reduction, revenue growth, operational efficiency, error reduction, and customer response time, with independent evaluators overseeing assessments.
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Sector-wise allocation under the proposed fund would prioritise manufacturing with 30 percent of total resources, followed by healthcare at 20 percent, financial services at 20 percent, agriculture technology at 15 percent, and retail and logistics at 15 percent.
Governance of the fund would be handled by an independent technical committee comprising representatives from the Ministry of IT and Telecommunication, the State Bank of Pakistan, P@SHA, and industry experts. Conflict-of-interest safeguards would be built in to prevent participating firms from influencing funding decisions.
According to the proposal, the initial phase would support around 600 SME-level AI deployments. The programme is designed as a pilot initiative to stimulate real-world adoption, build demand for local AI solutions, and generate evidence-based outcomes that could justify future scaling.
Policymakers believe the initiative could help improve productivity, reduce operating costs, and strengthen Pakistan’s competitiveness, particularly as regional economies move rapidly toward automation and data-driven decision-making.
If approved in the upcoming budget, the fund would mark Pakistan’s first large-scale, state-backed effort to directly subsidise AI adoption at the SME level, a segment widely seen as the backbone of the national economy.
