A potentially historic El Niño event could contribute to an estimated 373,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide over the next six months, with Nigeria, India, Indonesia and Brazil among the countries facing significant risks, according to projections by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.
The organisation’s El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker estimates the additional deaths associated with extreme heat between October 2026 and March 2027. The projections highlight the potential human cost of rising temperatures as the climate phenomenon intensifies.
Nigeria is projected to face approximately 56,000 additional heat-related deaths during the forecast period, followed closely by India with an estimated 55,000. Indonesia could record around 29,000 deaths, while Brazil faces an estimated 19,000.
The figures are projections, not confirmed fatalities. Actual outcomes will depend on weather conditions, public-health preparedness and the measures taken to protect people from dangerous heat.
What Is Godzilla El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It influences atmospheric circulation and can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across different parts of the world.
Depending on its strength and regional effects, El Niño can increase the risk of heatwaves, droughts and other extreme weather events. However, its impacts vary by region and are not identical during every occurrence.
The term “Godzilla El Niño” is an informal description of an exceptionally strong event rather than an official scientific classification.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), its October 8, 2026, outlook gave an 83% probability that El Niño would reach historic strength during October to December 2026. The agency also said a strong-to-very-strong event was likely to persist through January to March 2027.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported on October 8 that sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific were forecast to reach record levels during October to December. It warned that the developing event could affect weather patterns, economies, ecosystems and communities worldwide.
Which Countries Face the Highest Heat Risks?
The Climate Impact Lab’s estimates identify several countries where the additional heat-related mortality burden could be particularly severe.
Nigeria and India account for the largest projected national totals in the six-month outlook. Indonesia is another major hotspot, while Brazil is expected to experience elevated heat-related mortality throughout the forecast period.
These risks are especially concerning for people who have limited access to air conditioning, reliable electricity, drinking water and healthcare. Older adults, young children, outdoor workers and people with existing health vulnerabilities can face greater risks during periods of extreme heat.
The projections are intended to help policymakers identify vulnerable populations and direct resources towards areas where preventive measures could save lives.
How Governments Can Reduce Heat-Related Deaths
The projected death toll is not inevitable. The Climate Impact Lab says early warnings, expanded healthcare access, drinking-water provision and cooling centres can help communities prepare for extreme temperatures.
Governments can also strengthen emergency response plans, communicate heat warnings more effectively and consider protective measures for outdoor workers when temperatures become dangerous.
For Pakistan and other countries across Asia, monitoring seasonal forecasts and preparing public-health services will be important as the El Niño event develops. However, the specific effects on individual countries will depend on regional climate conditions and should be assessed using national meteorological forecasts.
The latest projections underline the importance of treating extreme heat as a public-health concern, particularly in densely populated areas where vulnerable communities may have limited resources to cope with prolonged high temperatures.
As El Niño continues to strengthen, scientists and public-health officials will be watching its development closely. The number of lives ultimately affected will depend not only on the severity of the heat but also on how effectively governments and communities prepare for it.
