A powerful El Nino weather pattern could contribute to an estimated 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide through February as rising temperatures intensify heat exposure across several regions, according to projections from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago.
The warming pattern, declared in June, is expected to reach its peak later this year and could become one of the strongest El Nino events on record.
Researchers say the phenomenon could amplify the effects of human-driven climate change and increase extreme heat risks around the world.
Global Temperatures Could Rise Further
Researchers estimate that global land temperatures could remain about 1.2°C above normal during the coming months.
The warmer conditions could result in 44% more extremely hot days than would typically be expected, increasing the risk of heat-related illness and deaths, particularly among vulnerable populations.
The projections highlight how natural climate patterns such as El Nino can add to the warming already caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
Developing Countries Face Higher Heat Risks
Developing countries are expected to account for a significant share of the projected additional deaths.
The Sahel region of Africa could record around 66,800 additional heat-related deaths, with nearly half of that figure expected in Nigeria.
Indonesia could see approximately 19,300 additional deaths, while the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia could collectively record another 19,400.
The projections also estimate around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India and 13,300 in Brazil.
Researchers Assess Thousands of Regions
The Climate Impact Lab researchers assessed temperature-related mortality across 24,378 regions and combined the findings with long-range weather forecasts to estimate the potential health impact of the expected warming.
The estimates come as international health authorities continue to warn about the growing risks posed by extreme heat and climate change.
The United Nations has also warned that El Nino could pose a significant threat to global health as higher temperatures increase pressure on communities and health systems.
Governments Urged to Prepare for Extreme Heat
Researchers said the projections could help governments prepare for the expected increase in heat exposure.
Measures such as early heat warnings, cooling centers and hydration stations could help protect people most vulnerable to extreme temperatures.
The projected death toll is an estimate rather than a prediction of individual outcomes, but researchers say it highlights the potential health consequences of a particularly strong El Nino event combined with ongoing global warming.
