WARSAW, POLAND — As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, attention is gradually turning toward the question of who could eventually succeed President Vladimir Putin.
The conflict began on February 24, 2022, after Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Although predictions about the collapse of his government or a possible coup remain speculative, some analysts argue that the war has created political, economic and institutional pressures that could affect the future of his rule.
A recent Washington Post analysis examined seven men whose positions could potentially place them in contention to lead Russia after Putin.
The individuals come from different parts of the country’s political, security and administrative establishment, and each has a different relationship with the Russian president.
Any future successor would need to build support among powerful institutions and political networks. The outcome would likely depend on which figure could assemble the strongest coalition when a leadership transition eventually occurred.
What Could a Post-Putin Transition Look Like?
The discussion has two important implications.
First, the fact that analysts are examining possible successors suggests that the question of Russia’s post-Putin leadership is no longer being treated as an entirely distant issue.
Putin could remain in power for years, and some observers have suggested that he may seek to extend his rule into the next decade.
Second, the potential candidates represent different constituencies. Some are connected to the security services that have played a central role in Putin’s system, while others come from the government, business or regional administration.
That means a transition would not necessarily produce a single predictable outcome. The next leader could emerge through a formal constitutional process, an elite agreement or a struggle among competing institutions.
Mikhail Mishustin
Under Russia’s constitution, the prime minister becomes acting president if the president resigns, dies or is unable to perform presidential duties.
That provision helped Vladimir Putin become acting president after Boris Yeltsin resigned on December 31, 1999. Putin was later elected president in 2000.
The current prime minister is Mikhail Mishustin, who was appointed in 2020. His position places him next in the formal constitutional line of succession.
However, analysts have questioned whether Mishustin has enough independent political influence to secure the presidency permanently. His background is primarily administrative and economic, and he has not built the same public profile or security-service network associated with some other potential candidates.
Dmitry Patrushev
Another possible figure is Dmitry Patrushev, a deputy prime minister and the son of Nikolai Patrushev, a former director of the Federal Security Service and a long-time associate of Putin.
Nikolai Patrushev has been closely connected to Russia’s security establishment for decades. His relationship with Putin has helped place the younger Patrushev within influential political circles.
Dmitry Patrushev is often associated with a younger generation of officials whose fathers held senior positions in the Russian state. These figures benefited from the stability and continuity of Putin’s political system and gradually moved into important government roles.
Patrushev’s own career, however, has largely been linked to banking and government administration. He reportedly attended the FSB academy at his father’s request, but his influence comes mainly from his family connections and access to senior officials.
Aleksei Dyumin
Aleksei Dyumin has a different background. He previously served as one of Putin’s bodyguards and joined the president’s security detail in 1999.
Dyumin later worked in the Federal Protective Service, which is responsible for protecting Russia’s president. He subsequently held senior military and government positions, including a role connected to military intelligence and service as a deputy defence minister.
He also commanded Russia’s Special Operations Forces. His career has therefore given him links to the military, security agencies and the Kremlin.
Dyumin’s close association with Putin could be an advantage in any transition, particularly if the future leadership is expected to protect the president’s family and preserve the existing power structure.
A Younger Generation of Officials
Several other potential successors are likely to come from a younger generation of Russian officials.
Putin’s current security chief, Aleksandr Bortnikov, has led the FSB since 2008 and is one of the president’s longest-serving associates. But at 75, he belongs to the same generation as Putin and may be viewed as less suitable for a long-term transition.
The experience of the final years of the Soviet Union may also influence Putin’s thinking. Leonid Brezhnev’s death was followed by the short leaderships of Yuri Andropov and Konstantin Chernenko before Mikhail Gorbachev became the final Soviet leader.
Some analysts believe Putin and members of his inner circle see that period as a warning about the risks of transferring power to aging leaders. From this perspective, a younger successor could offer greater political continuity and a longer period of stability.
No Clear Successor Has Emerged
Despite the growing discussion, no single successor has been publicly established.
The eventual outcome would depend on Putin’s health, the condition of the Russian economy, the course of the war in Ukraine, relations among security agencies and the position of influential political and business figures.
A successor would also need to determine whether to preserve Putin’s system or introduce changes after his departure.
For now, the most important issue is not whether Putin is about to leave office, but how Russia’s competing power centers are preparing for a future transition and which younger figures could gain enough support to lead the country after him.
