The Gujarat Elections scheduled in December 2022 to elect a 182-member legislative assembly are of major concern in the politics of the Indian Republic where the tone of General elections is being set by the buildup of major legislative elections in different states.
The major giants of Gujarat elections include the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), Indian National Congress (INC), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) which represents the backward tribes of the state of Gujarat. BJP has been the ruling party of Gujarat since 1996; it is also the home state of India’s PM Narendra Modi, who also served in the office as CM of Gujarat.
The INC can trace its historical power roots in Gujarat where it stayed in power from 1960-1995. The AAP after a successful debut in Punjab has its eyes set on Gujarat to further obsolete its image as National Party. For a local party like BTP, the stakes are forever high as it would be looking for a political ally to contest the election and gain maximum perks from the ruling elite in return for its tribal votes. However, these elections are also of major importance when prop of the vote share and hurdles in contesting the elections to the giants are considered.
Gujarat Elections and BJP Miseries
BJP despite enjoying power in Gujarat since 1996, faces a severe threat due to its INC-pivoted politics. BJP’s assumption of INC as a major challenger instead of AAP can seriously hamper their campaign’s fundamentals. The miscalculated permutations at the end of BJP regarding the depth of AAP and INC in the state of Gujarat could have serious implications as AAP is estimated to make some inroads in Gujarat elections at the stake of INC. AAP poses a very non-traditional challenge to the power and vote count of the BJP in Gujarat. Anti-Incumbency sentiments have also been aroused due to BJP being in power for 24 years. The competing discourse of trying out new horses in the state has gripped some support among the masses. The erosion in BJP’s support base has also been noted since their induction into power. The table below shows the declining constituency count of the BJP.
Year Constituency Count
2002 127
2007 117
2012 116
2017 99
The tally evidences the anti-incumbency sentiments gaining support among the public. The internal rifts of the BJP have also caused resentment among the hard-core BJP voters. The BJPs Gujarat Head C.R Patil who is also a member of Lok Sabha from Navsari in Gujarat faces severe opposition from the internal ranks of the BJP. Vote counts of Kashtriya, Harijan, Adivasi, and Muslims are so far going against BJP. The vote count also seemed to be reduced among Patel’s vote bank as well. The agrarian caste groups in Saurashtra region also are opting for alternatives due to resentment of Agrarian issues.
INC dilemma’s
The INC has been declining since BJP’s induction into central power in 2014. It has seen a series of election losses both at the center and at the state level. The major backlash on INC also exists due to its MLAs joining other parties once winning on Congress’s ticket. The major Hindu vote count also goes against INC due to the Hindutva politics of the BJP both at the states and central levels. Internal rifts among INCs ranks and threats of defection near elections are major causes hampers for INCs campaign in Gujarat elections. The extreme polarization in Gujarat society due to the religious and caste divide has seriously hampered the vote bank and political cause of Congress.
In Gujarat, Congress is caught between maintaining social engineering balance and defections of its MLAs. From July 2017 to July 2022, INC lost 29 of its elected MLAs. Congress being tunneled vision of Modi versus INC instead of BJPs local leadership drawbacks has seriously pushed INC against the wall in Gujarat. Congress requires a serious re-shift and re-direction of its policies and Gujarat could provide them with the vital ground to introduce such strategies.
The Congress faces dual challenges in Gujarat; first and foremost is taking on BJP and second is keeping its vote intact in light of AAP eyeing the INCs vote bank. Congress has failed to mobilize the middle class and higher middle-class voters which can go against the party on polling day. AAP and Asad Ud Din Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) are vying for a pie of traditional Congress vote bank. Congress Tribal Vote bank is also at threat if it fails to include Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) in its allies. INC is also facing a lack of media coverage during the state election campaign which could prove hurtful for INC s cause due to the emerging sentiment of BJP and AAP as real contenders as propagated by the media.
Aam Aadmi Party’s Teetering Debut
AAP after its successful debut in Punjab is now trying to gain pace in Gujarat before the state elections; however, the ripeness of Gujarat towards AAP remains doubtful. The party faced a major setback when BTP parted ways from AAP in September 2022, only after 3 months into the alliance.
This disaffection was created due to APP undermining the BTP and tribal vote bank due to its lack of exposure to Gujarati politics. AAP also faces radical violence at the hands of the BJP. Manoj Sorathaiya, the General Secretary of AAP was beaten by the Hindutva mob of BJP on August 30, the day AAP announced its debut in Gujarat’s state elections. AAP has also failed in tackling the propaganda campaign of the BJP which targeted AAP for its permutation of Medha Patkar as CM face.
Medha Patkar has been criticized and accused of depriving Gujarat and Kutch of water. She was also an active member of AAP since 2015 when she parted ways with Arvind Kejriwal. The BJP’s propaganda and lack of serious denial by AAP towards reconciliation between AAP Chief Kejriwal and Medha Patkar have given AAP a serious blow even before its campaign started. AAP’s thumping victory in Punjab cannot be replicated in Gujarat as BJPs Narendra Modi and Amit Shah would give them a hard time. Even being an alternate for the voters in the state, the party is not an alternate wholly.
Conclusion
The Gujarat Elections have pivotal importance in the build-up for General Elections in 2024. The numerous factors have been valid in the state over the years. These elections are also under consideration and discussion due to the controversial history of Gujarat which has some hard bruises from the past in form of Hindu-Muslim riots.
These scars from the past can and will haunt BJP in state elections as well. The Hindutva home ground of RSS and BJPs power hub Gujarat can also be full of surprises if the opposition parties carry out a good election campaign motivated by the voter’s interest.
The power vacuum in presence of the BJP is hard to create but anomalies do exist in form of Tribal voters and farmers’ resentments which the BJP failed to address during its tenure. The elections will have a major say in the Parties’ morale for Lok Sabha elections as well. Gujarat holds the key to developing the narrative for the center.
