Pakistan has reported a trade data discrepancy of more than $18 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after a government review found significant differences between two systems used to record imports.
The gap covers five fiscal years, from 2020-21 to 2024-25. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) examined the differences between data obtained through Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) and the Pakistan Single Window (PSW), and submitted its findings to the relevant government departments and the IMF.
The government says the discrepancy has been identified and reconciled. The issue arose from differences in the coverage of import declarations recorded by the two systems. It does not, on its own, mean that $18 billion went missing.
Trade Data Gap Grew to $6.2 Billion in 2024-25
The difference between the two datasets increased sharply over the five-year period, according to the committee’s findings.
| Fiscal year | Reported difference |
|---|---|
| 2020-21 | $1.4 billion |
| 2021-22 | $2.527 billion |
| 2022-23 | $2.402 billion |
| 2023-24 | $5.572 billion |
| 2024-25 | $6.224 billion |
| Total | $18.125 billion |
The annual gap rose from $1.4 billion in 2020-21 to more than $6.2 billion in 2024-25. The figures suggest that the difference became more pronounced in the last two years under review.
The committee found that the mismatch was concentrated in certain categories of goods declarations rather than spread across all import records.
The facilitation scheme category was identified as the main source of the widening gap, while other categories showed smaller differences.
China Trade Figures Led to Investigation
The issue first drew attention in 2025, when Pakistan’s recorded imports from China did not match China’s reported exports to Pakistan.
Following directions from the Prime Minister’s Office, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) formed a committee to examine the differences.
The review looked at data used by the FBR’s Directorate of Research and Statistics and the PBS, including figures generated through the Web-Based One Customs (WeBOC) system.
The committee found that the dataset used for official reporting had not been comprehensively updated to include certain goods declaration categories introduced or expanded after 2017.
As imports recorded under those categories increased, their exclusion contributed to the growing difference between the two datasets.
The review later expanded to examine the transition from PRAL-based reporting to PSW data. The PBS prepared a detailed report on the change and shared its findings with the Ministry of Planning and the Ministry of Finance.
Government Reviews Import Reporting System
The committee compared 15 goods declaration categories under PSW data with seven categories in the PRAL-based dataset used by the PBS.
Its findings pointed to differences in the coverage of import declarations as a major reason for the mismatch. The review recommended closer integration between the PBS, the FBR’s Directorate of Research and Statistics and the Pakistan Single Window.
It also called for regular reviews of reporting procedures and stronger data-sharing arrangements with major trading partners.
Another recommendation concerned Chinese exports to Afghanistan that pass through Pakistan. The committee proposed closer coordination with Chinese authorities and the International Trade Centre to ensure that such trade is recorded and classified appropriately.
The recommendations followed consultative workshops held by the PBS in June and July 2025, where participants discussed the implications of shifting to PSW data. Officials also raised concerns about how changes in the data source could affect Pakistan’s reported trade deficit and its engagement with the IMF.
Why Accurate Trade Figures Matter
Pakistan relies on import and export statistics to calculate its trade balance, assess external financing needs and make economic policy decisions. These figures are also used by investors, businesses and international institutions to track the country’s economic performance.
A change in the underlying data can alter the reported size of imports and the trade deficit without necessarily reflecting a new movement of goods or money during the period in question.
The PBS publishes Pakistan’s official external trade statistics, including monthly import and export figures, through its official statistics portal.
The IMF has also documented the revision of Pakistan’s import statistics for 2020-25 following the reconciliation of PRAL and PSW data in its published country report.
The government says the discrepancy has been reconciled, but the detailed committee findings and revised figures remain important for understanding the full impact of the changes.
Regular checks and consistent reporting standards will be needed to prevent similar differences from building up again.
