The siege on Ukraine that began on February 24 has now escalated by the Russian forces as they are close to capturing Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Russia has already battered many key cities of Ukraine and installed its military there. So far, there is no clue of peace as the first round of talks between the two countries held in Belarus have ended up without reaching a conclusion acceptable to either of the two countries. A variety of crises have emerged due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and there are still many others that may engulf the countries beyond these two. The countries having large reserves and being self-sufficient in producing food for their people may endure these crises. However, a country like Pakistan that has already been struggling very hard for its economy and that has to import food articles instead of being an agricultural country itself can suffer to the next level because of this conflict. This article aims to delve deep into some of these crises and the ways they can damage the whole world.
First, the violation of human rights is paramount to all other crises. As per the UNHCR, more than half a million people have fled to the neighboring countries mostly in Poland, Moldova, and Romania. Moreover, the number can soar to four million according to the UN High Commissioner of Refugees. There are children and females as well in this mass exodus who may face daunting challenges pertaining to harassment and abusiveness during their travel and in the countries that are embracing them. Many Ukrainians share common culture and language with the people of Poland. They already have their extended family in Poland, which may volunteer to help them. However, the rush of Ukrainians into Europe’s easternmost states could outnumber the 1.3 million asylum seekers—mostly from the Middle East and Africa—who entered the EU in 2015, at the time the continent’s biggest refugee crisis since World War II. That exodus sparked a wave of anti-immigration sentiment that drove up the support of populist and far-right parties. That’s why many countries can be hesitant to embrace them this time with an open heart because of being fearful of its outcome within the countries.
Second, the global economy is still recovering from the shocks inflicted upon it by the Covid-19. Now the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and sanctions on Russia by the western countries can dent it even further. Retrospectively, oil and gas were central features in creating inflation in the West in the 1970s, when the OPEC countries cut off their supply to the West. Even though, the US is not as much dependent on the oil of the Middle East as it was in the 1970s. Yet the price of oil has increased to $100 a barrel, and according to some estimates, it can mount to almost $110, if the conflict perpetuates. This will slow down the economy of the USA and cause a rise in the inflation rate (almost 10%) in the country which may lead to a severe economic meltdown like that of 2008. Moreover, Russia supplies about 40% of gas to Europe. A pipeline also runs through Ukraine where the Russian forces are wreaking havoc. Russia’s energy sector adds a huge amount of money to its exchequer and contributes to more than a third of Russia’s budget. The economic sanctions on Russia by the West are not limited to cutting off Russian banks from the SWIFT network and freezing its Central Bank’s assets but are too wide expanded to the exit of the British major Shell and British Petroleum (BP) that were working with Russian Gazprom and Rosneft on a joint venture. These types of developments have already lowered the capacity of gas from Russia to Europe up to 50% which will endanger not only the West and beyond but also Russia itself where a paucity of money in cash and energy production can be seen at the moment.
Third, food security is essential for any country, particularly, a country that doesn’t produce enough food for its people. Both Russia and Ukraine, account for almost 29% of the world’s wheat export. The war-torn region, the Middle East, is increasingly dependent upon the food grains imported from both of these countries. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Sudan have also imported wheat from Russia or Ukraine in 2020. Pakistan is yet again planning to import almost 2 million tons of wheat from Russia, as PM Imran Khan said in his recent talk to the public. If the Russia-Ukraine clash doesn’t stop as soon as possible, then more people can die not because of war but of a shortage of food or malnourishment, especially in the said regions. The international community must take steps immediately and stop the conflict. Mere imposing sanctions, as the West has done, won’t end in a peaceful result. Sanctions will only flame the price hikes of energy products and food grains, it will not make these things available to other countries that are dependent on the confronted countries. The NATO countries should also make sure the supplies of oil, gas, and food articles so that a scarcity of these things could be avoided.
