A political analysis of elections in Uttar Pradesh

Elections for legislative assemblies in five Indian states have now commenced including Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa.

The election results will be announced on 10 March 2022.

Uttar Pradesh is the largest Indian state based on its population estimated to be around 199,812,000 as per Census Report, 2011. It has also the largest Muslim population in India, which was approximately 38.4 million in 2011 forming 19.26% of the total population of the state. It is also a politically conscious province that influences the politics, thoughts & ideas of the entire country.  In this article, I will concentrate on the elections being held in Uttar Pradesh only, which are likely to have bearings on the Lok Sabha elections (lower house of the parliament) due in 2024.

The strength of the current legislative assembly of Uttar Pradesh formed in 2017 is as below:-

Many political parties and their alliances are taking part in these elections. Particulars of some prominent parties are summarized below:-

• Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): BJP, under the leadership of its regional head & Chief Minister, Yogi Adityanath, is participating in the elections as part of an alliance called the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The alliance is contesting for all the 403 seats. BJP has not nominated any Muslim candidate. However, its ally, Apna Dul, has nominated one Muslim candidate, Haider Ali Khan belonging to the Nawab family for Suar, Rampur, constituency.

BJP is a Hindu nationalist right-wing conservative party. It derives much of its inspiration from the ancient Hindu era of the Maurya Empire and more contemporarily from the warrior Shewaji, who had greatly resisted Moghul emperor, Aurangzeb Alamgir, in the mid-seventeenth century. The party originated and grew from its mainstream, The Bharatiya Jana Singh, which was formed in 1951. Ideologically it is closely linked to RSS and broadly follows its principles and ideas. However, BJP in its present form was established in 1980 by its founders, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani. It has been in power in India since 2014 both at the Centre and in various states and union territories.

Its ideologies are based on the philosophy of ‘Hindutva’. The party aims to formulate the country’s internal and external policies as per Hindu norms and traditions. It is working to build a society apparently based on Hindu extremism, hatred, discrimination, and narrowness, which is ultimately bound to collapse. This policy has created unrest among the non-Hindu population, particularly among the Muslims, who constitute the second-largest community of the country. BJP gained much of its strength during the ‘Ram Janmabhoomi’ Movement, which ultimately resulted in the demolition of Babri Masjid on 6 December 1992, for construction of Ram Mandir in its place. The demolition of the mosque had triggered widespread communal riots in the country.

Apart from the above, a most horrible event took place in Gujrat in early 2002 when BJP was in power in this state under Chief Minister, Narendra Modi. On 27 February 2002, a passenger train was attacked and burned near Godhra Town killing 59 Hindu pilgrims. This was considered an assault by Muslims triggering horrible riots against the minority community. The riots continued for weeks killing thousands of innocent persons, destroying properties, and uprooting a large number of people. It was suspected that BJP was involved in these criminal acts, although it denied its involvement.

Now, the future of this party will be decided by the people in these elections including the Lok Sabha elections due in 2024.

• SAMAJWADI PARTY (SP): This secular party is contesting the elections under the leadership of its prominent leader, Akhilesh Yadav, allied with RLD. The SP-RLD alliance will contest on all 403 seats of the U.P. Assembly. The party has also nominated a number of Muslim candidates. The SP’s president, Akhilesh Yadav, will be contesting from the Yadav-dominated Karhal constituency located in the Mainpuri district of Uttar Pradesh.

Samajwadi Party aims to attract different segments of voters coming from different religious groups and castes. Therefore, one finds Hindus, Muslims, Brahmin, Jaats, Yadav, and Dalits in the lists of its candidates. This appears to be the main strength of this party.

SP has promised that, if voted to power, it will provide the following facilities to the people:-

1. Free electricity to the domestic users up to 300 units;
2. Free power to the farmers for irrigation;
3. ‘Samajwadi Pension’ to all poor women to the extent of Rs.18, 000.00 per annum.
4. Revolving fund for cane procurement;
5. Interest-free loans for agriculture purposes.

SP was in power in UP from 2012 to 2017 when it had secured a clear majority of 224 seats in the state legislative assembly formed in 2012. However, it could secure only 47 seats in the elections held in 2017.

• INDIAN NATIONAL CONGRESS (INC): This party was formed in 1885. It played a vital role in securing independence from the British Empire. The party grew and expanded under the able leadership of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru and his associates. Jawaharlal Nehru served the country as a prime minister for approximately 17 years when the party had widespread roots throughout the country.

The party’s ideologies are based on Indian nationalism, secularism, and democracy which greatly attracted the people. These ideas were proved to be the effective force that kept the country united. Now the party is led by Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi & Priyanka Gandhi. The party is now shrinking because it could not withstand the wave of Hindu Nationalism (Hindutva) prevalent in the country since the recent past. Presently INC has 53 seats out of 543 in the Lok Sabha and only  7 seats out of 403 in the UP Legislative Assembly. The party is participating in the elections with full might. Before the Lok Sabha elections of 2019, the INC’s leader Rahul Gandhi issued a Foreword addressing the people, a part of which is quoted below:-

“Will India be a free and democratic country, and will the people of India be free from fear, free to live, work, pray, eat, love, and marry according to their wishes, be free from poverty, and free to pursue their ambitions? Or will India be governed by a pernicious ideology that will trample upon peoples’ rights, our institutions, conventions, and the health differences that are the essence of a multi-cultural country?”

• BAHUHAN SAMAJ PARTY (BSP) was formed in 1984. The party is working under the leadership of its president, Mayawati, who was born to a humble and poor Dalit family. Its core support base is Muslims and the oppressed class of Dalits which combined together form around 40% of UP’s population. The party has nominated the largest number of Muslim candidates.

BSP opposes and bitterly criticizes “the inequalities of the caste system” and is determined to fight for the “constitutional rights of the lower members of Indian Society.” The party did not issue any manifesto for the coming elections because its president Mayawati “believes more in doing work than making tall claims”. However, it promised that if voted to power “efforts will be made to change the picture of Uttar Pradesh on the basis of development work at all levels”.

In the elections held in 2007 BSP secured 206 seats and formed a government with Mayawati heading as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. This government continued from 2007 to 2012. Now, the party is contesting the elections in UP as an influential regional party, which mainly depends on the vote bank of the less-privileged and oppressed people of the society.

• ALL INDIA MAJLIS-E- ITTEHADUL MUSLIMEEN (AIMIM) was formed in 1958 in Hyderabad by its founder, Abdul Waheed Owaisi, to protect the rights and interests of Muslims in India. The party is now operating under the leadership of its president, Asaduddin Owaisi.

The party sees an element of hypocrisy in the behavior of secular parties, like Indian National Congress & Samajwadi Party (SP), which only seem to be interested in securing Muslim votes and which have never made any serious efforts to address their problems & grievances. The party has regularly won a seat in Lok Sabha from Hyderabad Constituency since 1984 till date. It has also secured 7 seats in Talengana Legislative Assembly. Based on this achievement the Election Commission of India recognized AIMIM as a ‘State Party’. Now it has expanded its activities beyond Hyderabad making its presence in other Indian states. In 2017 the party won 60 seats in Maharastra Municipal Corporation Elections. In 2014 & 2019 it won 02 seats in Maharastra Legislative Assembly Elections. In 2019 it also won an additional seat in Lok Sabha from Aurangabad Constituency (Maharastra). In 2020 AIMIM won 5 seats in Bihar Legislative Assembly expanding its presence to northeast India.

The party is now contesting UP Legislative Assembly Elections on 100 seats in alliance with “Bhagidari Sankalp Morcha Party”. The elections are being held in seven phases and will conclude on 07 March 2022. AIMIM is attracting huge crowds in its election campaign both in Western & Eastern U.P. The media is also giving wide coverage to the activities of Asaduddin Owaisi. It is expected that the party will perform well in the elections.

These elections are likely to be influenced by the following factors:-

• HINDUTVA appears to be the most attractive slogan for Hindu nationalist parties as well as for a section of voters. BJP and its allied parties are effectively using this card which is likely to pave the way for their success. The recent Hijab controversy originated from Karnataka State has also benefited Hindu Nationalist parties in their election campaign. However, at the same time, there are some detrimental factors too, as discussed in the following paragraphs, which may prove problematic for the ruling BJP.
• CASTE SYSTEM:

A very unique feature of Indian Society is that people are divided on the basis of the caste system. There are Forward Castes such as Brahmin, Thakur & Rajput, OBCs i.e. other backward classes which include Jaat, Yadav, and many other groups of people, Scheduled Casts which include Chamars, Pasi, Dhobi, Kori, Balmic and other classes having very low status in the society. The distribution of population in UP based on caste system is more precisely reflected in the table given below:-

Brahmin and Thakur constitute a very small fraction of the population of the state. However, politically they have an immense influence on society. If a candidate is supported by renowned Brahmins or Thakurs, it means other people belonging to other classes may follow suit. In the elections of 2017 & 2019 BJP effectively used this factor and won the elections with a big margin. In these elections too both BJP & SP are using this card to influence the voters belonging to other classes. Having said this it is also true that many voters prefer to vote for the candidates having affiliation with their own caste. For instance, Rajput, Jaat, Yadav, Dalits, etc. may vote for the candidates belonging to their own classes. Bearing this in mind SP’s Akhilesh Yadav is contesting from Karhal Constituency which has a dominant Yadav population. Similarly, Bahujan Samaj Party is substantially dependent on the Muslim and Dalit votes. Thus apparently caste system has an immense influence on Indian politics.

In this context, it must be clarified that Muslim society has nothing to do with the caste system. In the Last Sermon given at the Hajj pilgrimage the holy prophet of Islam (peace be upon him) said, “The blood supremacy is under my feet”. He also added that one is superior just on the basis of ‘ Taqwa’. The affiliation of Muslims with any tribe or class is only for identification and it means nothing beyond this.

• MUSLIMS VOTE BANK:

Muslims constitute 19.26% of the population of the state. In seven districts of Western UP, their population is 40% and above, particularly in Moradabad & Rampur.  In many other constituencies of Western & Eastern Uttar Pradesh Muslim voters are in Sizeable number which can significantly influence the outcome of elections. Secular parties like Indian National Congress, Samajwadi Party & Bahujan Samaj Party are doing their best to attract Muslim voters. Their success depends on how much they are able to convert this vote bank in their favor. Since independence Muslims have been supporting secular parties, particularly Indian National Congress. However, it appears that they are only interested in their vote bank. In the distant and recent past, no serious efforts were made by them to address the grievances of Muslims. This issue is now being fully exploited by AIMIM with a noticeable impact on the public opinion of this class.

• FARMERS’ AGITATION:

In September 2020, the Indian Parliament had passed three Farm Acts, which were viewed by the farmers as prejudicial to their interest. Consequently, farmers’ unions commenced protests in November 2020, against these acts, which soon engulfed the entire Punjab & Haryana states. Subsequently, the agitation spread to Delhi and part of Western UP. During this movement, the farmers faced immense suffering and some of them died/killed during these protests. Consequently, in November 2021, the government finally repealed the aforesaid Farm Acts leading to the end of protests. This movement has created a bad impression among the farmers for the Modi Regime, which may adversely affect the performance of BJP in the elections in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh.

• ECONOMIC ISSUES:

In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, serious economic issues have arisen in India like many other countries. People belonging to the lower classes have been suffering from extreme poverty, high costs of living, and unemployment, which have created unrest among them. This will be a detrimental factor for the Modi Regime in the polls. It can be summed up that if the concept of ‘Hindutva’ remains supreme and once again it lures the masses, then BJP will win the elections. Otherwise, Samajwadi Party (SP) may end up victorious. Apart from this good performance is also expected from AIMIM because it has effectively addressed the Muslims’ grievances.