Former RAW chief Amarjit Singh Dulat believes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi may hold out the olive branch to Pakistan later this year and even “bailout” the neighboring state, which has been experiencing a political and economic crisis in recent months.
Mr. Dulat also warned of the formation of a “formidable” Iran-Russia-China axis, while claiming that India’s newfound ally, the United States, is “far away, our neighbors are closer.”
In an interview, the former RAW director said, “Every time is the best time to talk to Pakistan. We need to keep our neighbors engaged.”
He added that it was imperative to keep talks open with “a little more public engagement.”
“In this year, my hunch is Modi ji will bail out Pakistan. No inside information, but it is my hunch,” Mr Dulat, who in his days as Research and Analysis Wing chief is believed to have run many deep penetration intelligence operations into the neighboring country, said.
Dwindling forex reserves, nationwide power outages, political instability, and a plummeting Pakistani rupee have already propelled the neighboring state to seek a bailout package from the IMF.
Many analysts believe that Pakistan’s method of dealing with similar crises in the past where it has “leveraged its geo-political position and extracted rent from global partners” is not working and hence it may be more open to talking peace and trade with India.
Mr. Dulat, however, pointedly said engagement with Pakistan has always been “influenced by domestic politics”.
Peace talks between the two neighbors have previously been held hostage by domestic perceptions, to the point where Pakistan has denied Indian exports the ‘most favored nation’ treatment that it is obligated to grant to all WTO signatories due to internal political compulsions.
The former spy chief told PTI video that for China the diplomatic effort from India’s side, “Needs to be more open diplomacy… (where the Chinese) feel satisfied that India means well by them.” He pointed out that despite meetings between Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, India has also been engaging with the U.S.
“You turn your back and welcome Trump, that doesn’t go down well with the Chinese,” he said, though he added that maintaining good equations with all sides was part of India’s tradition of non-alignment.
He also warned that a “strong axis is developing- Iran-Russia-China – it is a formidable force.”
Underlining the need for better relations with neighbors, Mr. Dulat said “our relations with America has improved, which is very positive, But America is far away, our neighbors are nearer.”
Many other global analysts have also warned of the developing relationship between the three nations as they face up to a common adversary – the USA and Western Europe.
Two things on which the Delhi Karnataka Sangha can focus on… pic.twitter.com/dm55QWZCDG
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) February 25, 2023
