Sean Patrick Maloney Risks Being First DCCC Chair To Lose Seat In 40 Years
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s chances of winning re-election are dropping away, according to Cook Political Report, which changed its rating on the race from lean Democratic to a toss-up on Monday, marking the latest midterm shift in Republicans’ favor.
Polls have shown Assembly member Mike Lawler (R) widening his lead against Maloney from two points in July to six points earlier this month, however, the surveys were conducted by McLaughlin & Asso, cities for Lawler’s campaign.
Maloney’s campaign, meanwhile, has always declined to share its internal polls, insisting Maloney comes out ahead, but in a tight race, the Albany Times-Union reported Sunday.
Some political forecasts still favor Maloney, including FiveThirtyEight’s model showing he has an 8 in 10 chance of winning, but by a relatively slim six-point margin.
Republicans have poured significant resources into unseating Maloney, with the Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans’ main super PAC, announcing last week a $4 million ad buy against the five-term incumbent on the top of the $2 million in ads it had already reserved in the race.
Maloney—facing attacks from his opponent linking him to President Joe Biden (whose approval ratings stand at less than 50%) and bail reforms Republicans blame for rising crime rates—admitted to the Times-Union on Friday he is worried about losing.
Maloney would be the first DCCC chair to lose re-election since 1980, when Rep. Jim Corman was unseated in California, according to Cook’s U.S. House Editor Dave Wasserman. Michigan’s Guy Vander Jagt was the last National Republican Committee chair to lose re-election, in 1992.
Sean Patrick Maloney risks being first DCCC chair to lose seat in 40 Years
“Two weeks out from Election Day, Maloney finds himself in deep danger, simultaneously fighting for his political life in his Hudson Valley seat and desperately trying to prevent Democrats from being swept out of the House majority,” Wasserman writes.
The odds have increased in recent weeks that Republicans will win control of the House, currently split 222-213 with Democrats holding the majority. FiveThirtyEight predicts the GOP has an 8.1 in 10 shot at winning, an eight-point swing in the party’s favor from just two weeks ago.
Maloney’s race is now one of 22 districts held by Democrats rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, compared to 10 toss-up Republican districts, of 85 Cook designates as competitive. Maloney’s home was drawn out of the 18th congressional district he currently represents in redistricting, forcing him to win over an entirely new set of voters in the newly drawn 17th district.
