“China is USA’s primary and ultimate enemy, not Russia. Russia to the United States is just an obstacle on the way to China.” This explicit statement came from Washington as it is extremely worried about China’s rapid growth. China on the other hand is also more than ready to go to any extent when it comes to Taiwan and South China sea. In the 20th report of China’s National people’s congress, President Xi-Jingping clearly spoke about massive retaliation in case of any foreign threat to the Taiwan issue. Because of the day-by-day increasing competition between the economies of both countries, the United States and China are heading towards an unending race. Observing this race through militaristic lenses, we see a massive hike in the number of Chinese warships as well as their advancing intercontinental ballistic missile system. Contrarily, there is undeniable interference of Washington in the Taiwan strait through its warships. Furthermore, when it comes to political dominance, Washington has for a considerable time been seeking anti-Chinese coalitions in Asia. The main purpose of which is to provoke and destabilize China. Whereas, China being highly focused on trade routes and regional connections, is making its position in the region, hegemonic.
So as far as the question of emerging conflicts on the map is considered, the Sino-US conflict is not at all ignorable and the hotspot seems the South China Sea. The active presence of warships of both countries in the South China Sea, make them stand on the brink of war. Keeping its strategic geography in mind, the region is vital for both China and United States. China can not in any condition compromise on the very region because of its valuable interests. This makes the war more inevitable. The recent National Security Strategy of the United States declares China as the only competitor with both intent and the capability to change the world order.
In his worth reading book, “Destined for war: Can America and China escape the Thucydides ’ trap? “, Graham Allison sees many ominous factors which may lead to a war between both major powers. The author remarkably puts both states on a sea saw swing and demonstrates the dominance of the United States which is slowly being dwarfed by China. Allison gives a warning that the United States and China are at a clear risk of falling into the Thucydides’ trap. Thucydides’ trap is all about the increase in chances for the inevitability of war when a rising power threatens a ruling power. The ruling power takes the increasing stability of rising power as a security threat and this ends in a war. The United States and China are two major powers, with the narrative of their own exceptionalism. China did not and would never forget the past humiliation and disgrace. This is one of the reasons that it has been focusing on the rejuvenation of the state and restoration of the same dignity and honor for decades. Meanwhile Unites States has not been and never would ever be willing to surrender its hegemony to any other nation.
In his book, written about this inevitable conflict, Allison makes certain analogies of the United States and China with Athens and Sparta ( the Greek city-states) and tries to identify that both nations are trapped in a vicious cycle which would lead them toward a catastrophic war. To prove his stance, he provides his readers with a number of examples in which states went to war with each other because of being caught in Thucydides’ trap. This increases the validity and authenticity of his work at the same time while making everyone ponder about the risk of a chaotic war.
Other than this, incompatible cultures, dissimilar political systems, and different ideologies are some of the hurdles in a promising Sino-US relationship. In his work “Clash of civilizations”, Samuel P Huntington predicts the emergence of conflict between Chinese and Western civilizations. According to him, the modes of warfare have been changed and in the future, war is going to be among civilizations. After dividing the world into nine major civilizations, Huntington elaborates that the ultimate conflict would be between Sinic (Chinese) and Western (Including the United States and alliances) civilizations. The emergence of China as another super power and the United States’ moves towards curtailing China’s powers make Huntington’s argument factual and acceptable.
It seems like the cold war has returned, though the eastern competitor is changed. This new cold war can in no time be replaced with a full-fledged war if the hostility in the South China Sea prevails. The only obstacle in the way of this catastrophic war is deterrence. Both of the states would think a hundred times over about the repercussions of deadly war before launching their nukes. Talking about the barriers in the war, the importance of intensified trade networks, and economical interdependence is also undeniable. In this highly globalized world, each and every nation is dependent on the other. So are America and China. According to a theory given by David Mitrany, when the scale of trade among nations rises, the scale of the possibility of conflict falls down. The United States and China have a huge mutual industrial network which makes them tolerate the intolerable moves of one another. But it does not and can not put a full stop to the looming war. Because Biden administration is all set for a trade war with China by imposing economic sanctions and banning high-tech semiconductors that are crucial not only for the production of electronic products but for all manners of other sophisticated goods as well.
Washington now considers China as the most intimidating strategic adversary that must be contained and defeated. But China is still growing in an explosive manner. Its economy, its military, and its role in transcontinental regional integration are exceptional. It reminds me of Napoleon Bonaparte who said, “Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world “. Now china has wakened and ultimately shaken the world. At the same time, it is a wake-up call for Washington as well whose animosity with china is well-reasoned and logical.
