The Russian invasion of Ukraine was a corollary of a historical antagonism between the West and Russia. However, the recent invasion is a result of Ukraine’s accentuating ties with the European Union and NATO. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is predicated on scores of Russian strategic objectives. Furthermore, this conflict is also a litmus test of American credibility as the eyes of the whole world are on the USA’s response to Russian belligerence. Russia Ukraine war has deep-rooted implications for the US-led world order. This crisis also has numerous other far-reaching consequences for the world as Ukraine is one of the biggest exporters of wheat and fuel in the world. Keeping in mind the power imbalance between the two states, the conflict seems to be one-sided but this is not the case and this war could ensue a full-scale war in the long run between the West and Russia.
Why did Russia Invade Ukraine?
The main cause behind this invasion is the historical rivalry between the West and Russia. This rivalry traces its history back to the French invasion of Russia under Napoléon. Since then, the latter has seen the Western European states as a threat to its security and unity. This threat perception has compelled Russian policymakers to keep the Eastern European states acting as a buffer zone against Western Europe. After the end of the Cold War, the United States and Russia made a verbal agreement against the Eastward expansion of NATO. NATO is violating this agreement since 1999 which has always remained a matter of concern for Russia. President Putin warned the West and the United States scores of times against the expansion of NATO but these warnings were never taken seriously. President Putin had demanded the USA to assure that Georgia and Ukraine will never be included in NATO but the US turned down these demands. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s obsession to join NATO resulted in the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24th February 2022. The famous philosopher and political activist, Noam Chomsky, has also put the ounce of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on NATO and the USA as they abjured their verbal agreement with Russia.
Cost of the War
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has augmented a humanitarian crisis not only in Ukraine but also in many other parts of the world. The Russia-Ukraine war has driven millions of Ukrainian people away from their homeland. According to a UNHCR report, more than 7 million Ukrainian refugees have been recorded across Europe and almost 7 million people have also been displaced within their country. The humanitarian reverberations of the Ukraine crisis are being felt almost throughout the world. There have been multiple attacks on health facilities in Ukraine. In May 2022, WHO called into the probe for more than 200 attacks on health facilities in Ukraine by the Russian army.
Amnesty International has also reported attacks on civilians in Ukraine in reckless Russian attacks. As per Ukraine’s Interior Ministry, more than 7000 civilians have been killed and 5,500 have been injured by the Russian Army. Recently, a prison for prisoners of war has been attacked through shelling in the eastern separatist part of Ukraine. Both sides are trading blame for this attack. The United Nations has also confirmed the deaths of more than 14000 casualties during this conflict.
The humanitarian consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are not confined to Ukraine only. The Russia-Ukraine war has spurred an energy crisis in Europe. It has also led to increasing inflation throughout the globe. As per the UN report, presented in April 2022, the prices of oil and wheat have risen more than 300 percent in Somalia where 0.7 million people had already been displaced by drought. Ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war are so high that inflation in the US has risen to a new 40-year high. The IMF has indicated that the inflation rate in the US will ascend to 7.7 percent and 5.3 percent in the European zone by the end of 2022. Pakistan, a country already facing serious energy and economic crisis, and many other developing countries are also among the major victims of the Russia-Ukraine war. LNG rates have seen a record surge after this invasion. This has created serious issues for Pakistan as many LNG companies have abandoned their contracts with the country to exploit profitable European markets. This war would also impinge the already strained Pak-US relations. Russia provides a host of reasons for its invasion of Ukraine. However, war can never be condoned whatever the reason might be. Although Russia is comparatively a big power and Ukraine is receiving military aid from the West, the war could persist for many years. The civilian casualties and the inflation could rise manifolds as the war prolongs.
The United States has imposed sanctions on Russia but this would also mushroom inflation across the globe and energy crisis in many European countries. Moreover, the US sanctions on Russia are insufficient to press the latter to stanch the invasion. This aggression can also set precedent for other nations of the world. If the US fails to defend its ally, Ukraine, in this war, it will tarnish its credibility and would cement the notion that to be America’s enemy can be dangerous, but to be its friend is fatal as stated by Henry Kissinger. If the US fails to defend its ally, China could also act upon its aggressive designs in Taiwan. This would be inimical to the US hegemony.
The West must avoid any steps which could create a security dilemma for other states. The United States, EU, and international organizations need to adopt a pragmatic approach to counter Russian aggression. It is clear from the aforementioned facts that whichever side may stand victorious, humanity will be at a loss and the specter of this war will haunt homo sapiens for decades.
