Since the end of the cold war and two years after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, the United States has emerged as the sole superpower of the world. If we believe that this statement is true then what about the position of China and Russia within the current international system? If we say, that America is the only hegemon within the current international system then it makes little sense to talk about great-power politics as there is only one superpower. The purpose here is to find out whether it would be possible for China to continue its rise peacefully or not and whether it’s going to challenge US hegemony in the near future. To predict this we will use the lens of Offensive Realism. It is because the lens of Offensive Realism will offer us significant insight into China’s rise within the current international system.
China’s quest for regional hegemony:
Over the years China has been looking to become a global hegemon and challenge the US within the international system. But, in order to acquire global hegemony, China first has to shift its focus toward the achievement of regional hegemony. China will look to maximize the power gap with its neighbors like India, Japan, and Russia. China basically, wants militarily weak India, Japan, and Russia just as the US, which preferred militarily weak Canada and Mexico as its neighbors. China will also look to push the US forces out of the Asia-Pacific region similar to the US pushing the European great powers out of the western hemisphere. China should also make it pretty clear to the US that it should not interfere in its disputes over the maritime boundaries of the South China sea. Moreover, China would also have to push the US out of the East China sea and the Yellow sea as well. The main reason for this is that China would not want military forces being deployed at its doorstep just like the US which would not want other great powers sending their military forces into the western hemisphere.
So, we can observe from the above facts that China basically wants to follow the US path in terms of achieving regional hegemony but in reality, it’s not possible. This is because of the geographical location of China as it is surrounded by states like India, Japan, and Russia while in the western hemisphere we see that the US was not surrounded by states geographically that may have challenged it in pursuing regional hegemony.
Are the Chinese more ethical, more principled, or are they less nationalistic? My answer to this would be simply No because they are also following the Realist Model in terms of achieving regional hegemony in Asia. The Principle reason for China to achieve regional hegemony is simply its survival. Over a period of time, China has been following the Den Xio-ping policy of: “Hide our capacities and bide our time but also get somethings done”. But, after 2009, China has not been able to implement its low-key foreign policy. The reason for this has been the security competition between both rivals US and China.
Possible picture of Security Competition between US and China;
• An armed race between US and China
• Threat perception of a possible breakout of war
• Proxy wars where Chinese and American Allies would fight each other
• Blood- letting strategy
• Scrutinization of the rival super power and portraying it as a threatning and formidable adversery.
What would US and China fight for?
In the near future, China and US can possibly fight for:
• Over control of Taiwan
• South China sea
• Senkaku/ Diaoyu Islands
• Sea lines of Communication between China and the Persian Gulf
Conclusion:
Looking at China’s rise by the lens of Offensive Realism, we see that the security competition between US and China has put the world in a state of Security Dilemma. The US would be looking to stop China from challenging it by trying to slow down Chinese economic rise if feasible. It would also be looking to form an American lead balancing coalition to contain China. It would also look to topple regimes that are friendly to China as well. On the other hand, China being entangled in a number of territorial disputes would have to settle its disputes as quickly as possible and also counter the malign intentions of US and other coalition powers in an effective way. By describing all these aspects, we can predict that it would be very difficult for China to rise peacefully, so the answer would be simply No in this regard.
