What we can expect from Kim Jong-un in 2023?
North Korea broke all previous records in 2022. In a single year, it launched more missiles than ever before. In fact, in 2022, a fifth of all missiles North Korea has ever fired was launched. Kim Jong-un also claimed that North Korea had developed nuclear weapons and that these weapons would remain in place that year.
Since 2017, when then-US President Donald Trump threatened North Korea with “fire and fury,” this has brought to the highest level of tension on the Korean peninsula.
North Korea significantly improved its weapons in 2022. The country started the year by testing short-range missiles that could threaten South Korea, then mid-range ones that might hit Japan.
The Hwasong 17, a powerful intercontinental ballistic missile that can theoretically reach any location on the US mainland, was successfully tested by the end of the year.
Additionally, Mr Kim lowered the bar for employing nuclear weapons. He indicated that these weapons were no longer only intended to prevent war, but could also be deployed offensively and preemptively to win a war after declaring in September that North Korea had developed an irreversible nuclear weapons programme.
He assembled the members of his ruling Workers’ Party as the year came to a conclusion to outline his objectives for 2023.
His first priority is to “exponentially increase” nuclear weapon production. The widespread production of smaller, tactical nuclear weapons that could be utilised to fight a war against South Korea must be a part of this, he insisted.
Nuclear weapons expert Ankit Panda claims that this is the most concerning development.
North Korea must first create a nuclear bomb that has been downsized so that it can fit aboard a tiny missile before it can create tactical nuclear weapons.
The world has not yet seen evidence that Pyongyang has been successful in doing this. The majority of 2022 was spent by the intelligence community waiting for it to test such a device, but 2023 may be the year.
A spy satellite and a more durable solid-fuelled ICBM, both of which Mr Kim believes will be launched into space this spring, are also on his list of goals for the next year. The latter could be launched at the US with less forewarning than his current model.
Therefore, we may predict that 2023 will feel very much like 2022, with Pyongyang continuing to aggressively test, improve, and expand nuclear weapons
Indeed, less than three hours into the new year it had already conducted its first missile test. But, Mr Panda says, “most missile launches in the coming year may not be tests, but training exercises, as North Korea now prepares to use its missiles in a possible conflict”.
It is improbable that the North Korean leader will decide to resume discussions with the US this year given the lengthy list of objectives that need to be accomplished. Since the most recent round of denuclearization talks broke down in 2019, Mr. Kim has given no indication that he wants to talk.
One hypothesis is that he is holding off until he has the most leverage. He won’t come back to the table to talk on his terms until he has established beyond a reasonable doubt that North Korea is capable of destroying the US and South Korea.
North Korea instead got closer to China and Russia during the past year.
When the North unintentionally launched five drones into South Korean airspace last week, the situation worsened. The South’s failure to shoot them down revealed a hole in its defences and alarmed common South Koreans, who are often unconcerned by the North’s activities.
The president pledged that the South will respond negatively to any provocations from the North and punish them.
According to Chad O’Carroll, CEO of Korea Risk Group, a research agency that keeps tabs on North Korea, this might most likely result in a direct confrontation between the two Koreas in 2023, which might even result in casualties.
“Responses by either the North or South could escalate to the point where we see the exchange of actual fire, intentional or otherwise,” he said. One mistake or miscalculation and the situation could spiral.
What North Koreans can expect in 2023 is an issue that is equally important.
They have been subjected to stringent border closures relating to the pandemic for the past three years. Humanitarian organizations claim that the coronavirus has caused acute shortages of food and medicine because even trade was prohibited in an effort to keep it out. In a rare admission last year, Mr. Kim mentioned a “food crisis.”
Then, in May 2022, North Korea acknowledged having an epidemic of the virus, but only a few months later asserted that it had been eradicated.
Will the border with China be reopened and reopened in 2023, allowing people and commodities back in?
China’s reopening brings hope. North Korea is reportedly vaccinating people living along the border in preparation, but given its precarious healthcare, Ms Lee is cautious.
“Barring an emergency, such as its economy on the brink of collapse, it is unlikely North Korea will fully reopen its borders until the pandemic can be considered over globally, particularly in neighbouring China,” she said.
Finding who will govern North Korea after Mr. Kim is another development to keep an eye out for. Although his succession strategy is unknown, he publicly introduced one of his offspring last year, a girl who is believed to be his daughter Kim Chu-ae.
She has now been seen attending three military events, and further images from those events were posted on New Year’s Day, prompting some people to wonder if she is the chosen one.
Clearly, North Korea is seldom ever predictable, and 2023 appears to be shaping up to be just as unpredictable and chaotic as the previous year.
