Pakistan’s power purchase cost is projected to reach Rs27.309 per unit in 2027, with the Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee Limited (CPPA-G) estimating the total cost of electricity procurement at Rs3.552 trillion under its base-case scenario.
The projection is part of the tariff-rebasing process for electricity distribution companies, with the revised reference costs scheduled to apply from January 1, 2027.
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has listed CPPA-G’s application and hearing notice on its official website and has scheduled a public hearing for November 3, 2026.
The proposed figure is a power procurement estimate, not the final electricity rate for households or businesses. The amount consumers eventually pay will depend on NEPRA’s determination and other components of the retail tariff.
NEPRA to Hear CPPA-G’s 2027 Cost Projections
The November 3 hearing will allow stakeholders to examine the assumptions behind the projected purchase price and raise objections before the regulator reaches its decision.
CPPA-G buys electricity on behalf of distribution companies using aggregated demand projections and the applicable power-sector framework, according to the agency’s official description. Its estimates therefore form part of the cost calculations used in the tariff process.
The hearing is an opportunity to scrutinise those estimates. The projected price may change during regulatory review, and the base-case figure should not be treated as an approved tariff.
Power Purchase Price Could Reach Rs29.26 in Worst-Case Scenario
CPPA-G has modelled six scenarios to assess how electricity procurement costs could respond to changes in demand, fuel expenses and exchange rates.
Under the base case, the average purchase price is projected at Rs27.309 per unit. The ideal scenario puts it at Rs25.883, while the second-worst-case scenario raises it to Rs29.255 per unit.
The two worst-case scenarios assume the rupee weakens to Rs290 against the US dollar. Under these conditions, the projected price reaches Rs28.835 per unit in Worst Case-I and Rs29.255 in Worst Case-II.
A separate demand-sensitivity scenario assumes annual electricity demand growth of just 0.70%, reducing projected sales to 127,937 gigawatt-hours. The estimated purchase price in that case is Rs27.568 per unit.
Another scenario examining the mix of re-gasified liquefied natural gas and gas puts the projected price at Rs26.441 per unit.
These scenarios show how sensitive the forecast is to its underlying assumptions. They do not represent approved electricity rates or establish the exact price consumers will pay in 2027.
Capacity Payments Make Up the Largest Share
Capacity charges account for the largest share of the projected procurement bill, according to the base-case figures.
CPPA-G estimates capacity charges at Rs1.91 trillion, equivalent to Rs14.717 per unit. Fuel costs are projected at Rs1.32 trillion, or Rs10.141 per unit.
Variable operations and maintenance expenses are estimated at Rs70.58 billion, equivalent to Rs0.543 per unit. Transmission-related costs and Ministry of Finance charges are projected at a combined Rs248.30 billion, or Rs1.909 per unit.
The breakdown shows that the cost of electricity is not driven by fuel prices alone. Capacity payments account for a substantial part of the projected bill, while fuel expenses and other charges add to the overall cost.
Rupee and Electricity Demand Could Affect the Final Cost
For its base-case scenario, CPPA-G has assumed annual electricity demand growth of 2.60%, an exchange rate of Rs279 per US dollar and electricity sales of 130,081 gigawatt-hours to distribution companies.
The forecast also uses assumptions for interest rates, inflation and National Grid Company losses. If these conditions change, the actual procurement cost could differ from the projection.
A weaker rupee can raise the local-currency cost of imported fuel and foreign-currency-linked obligations. Electricity sales also matter because the total system cost is recovered across the units sold.
Will Electricity Bills Increase in January 2027?
The Rs27.309-per-unit forecast does not, by itself, establish whether consumers will face a particular increase in their bills from January 2027.
The power purchase price is one component of the wider tariff structure. Distribution costs, taxes, duties, subsidies and other adjustments also affect the final amount charged to consumers.
NEPRA’s review of CPPA-G’s application will help determine the reference costs for the next tariff period. Until the regulator issues its determination, the projected figure should be understood as an estimate rather than a confirmed consumer rate.
