The chairman of the Water and Power Development Authority has warned that India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty represents a serious strategic challenge for Pakistan, placing the country’s long-term water security and irrigation system at risk.
In an opinion article published in a local newspaper, WAPDA Chairman Lt Gen retired Muhammad Saeed said the treaty has stood for more than 65 years as one of the world’s most durable and internationally respected transboundary water-sharing agreements. He said its importance extends beyond diplomacy, as it has provided Pakistan with predictable river flows essential for national planning.
According to Saeed, the treaty enabled Pakistan to develop the Indus Basin Irrigation System, the largest contiguous irrigation network in the world. The system includes major reservoirs, barrages, inter-river link canals and an extensive canal distribution network that forms the backbone of the country’s agriculture.
He said the irrigation system supports nearly 35 million acres of farmland and contributes to more than 90 percent of Pakistan’s food production. It also underpins hydropower generation, rural livelihoods and broader economic growth, making water predictability a matter of national survival.
Saeed said regional stability suffered a setback in May 2025 when India unilaterally announced it was placing the treaty in abeyance. He described the move as illegal and contrary to international law, noting that it has drawn growing concern in global forums focused on shared water governance.
He pointed out that while countries participating in the UN Water Convention were urged to strengthen cooperation under the principle of shared responsibility, India’s actions moved in the opposite direction by creating uncertainty in a system vital to Pakistan’s water, food and energy security.
The WAPDA chairman said India has since accelerated work on upstream infrastructure projects on the western rivers, including fast-tracked plans for expanding the Ranbir Canal and constructing the Chenab-Beas Link Tunnel. He warned that the combined impact of multiple projects could allow upstream regulation of river flows entering Pakistan.
He also expressed concern over India’s suspension of hydrological data sharing, which is required under the treaty. Saeed said the lack of timely river flow data during the 2025 flood season weakened Pakistan’s flood forecasting and emergency preparedness, increasing risks to lives, infrastructure and livelihoods.
Saeed identified the Chenab River as the most critical of the western rivers. He said predictable Chenab flows are essential for the safe operation of Pakistan’s irrigation network, as the river irrigates nearly 10 million acres of farmland through a chain of major barrages and canals.
He explained that the Chenab’s average annual flow of around 25 million acre-feet supports some of Pakistan’s most productive agricultural regions, contributing significantly to wheat, rice and sugarcane production while sustaining millions of rural households.
Because most of the Chenab’s catchment lies upstream, Saeed said Pakistan has limited ability to offset prolonged flow disruptions. He warned that any sustained uncertainty in the quantity or timing of river flows could destabilize the entire irrigation system, threatening food security, energy generation and economic stability.
The WAPDA chairman concluded that Pakistan’s concerns are not limited to individual dams or annual water volumes. Instead, he said the real danger lies in the cumulative upstream capacity to control river flows, which poses an existential challenge for a lower riparian country dependent on predictable water supplies.
