TEHRAN / WASHINGTON, April 2026 — Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on X that United States pressure on Iranian oil exports could push global crude prices to $140 per barrel as tensions escalate over a maritime blockade strategy linked to former US President Donald Trump’s administration.
The remarks came amid rising volatility in energy markets, where Brent crude has already surged above $120 per barrel in recent trading sessions following disruption concerns around Middle East supply routes.
Ghalibaf, a senior Iranian political figure and former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Air Force commander, directly criticized US officials over what he described as flawed assumptions about Iran’s energy infrastructure. He rejected claims that export restrictions could mechanically damage production systems inside the country.
“Three days in, no well exploded. We could extend to 30 and live stream the well here,” Ghalibaf said in a post on X, responding to US commentary on possible pressure effects inside Iran’s oil network.
He also targeted US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, accusing American policymakers of relying on poor strategic advice regarding energy markets and sanctions enforcement.
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“That was the kind of junk advice the US admin gets from people like Bessent… Next stop: 140,” he said, referring to oil price projections.
The exchange reflects growing friction over Washington’s approach to Iranian crude exports, including temporary measures allowing the movement of an estimated 140 million barrels of Iranian oil already stored on tankers at sea. US officials have described the move as a way to influence global pricing while limiting new purchases.
3 days in, no well exploded.We could extend to 30 and livestream the well here.
That was the kind of junk advice the US admin gets from people like Bessent who also push the blockade theory and cranked oil up to $120+. Next stop:140. The issue isn’t the theory, it’s the mindset.— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 29, 2026
Former US President Donald Trump, in recent remarks to Fox News, warned that restricting oil flow through Iranian export routes could lead to internal pipeline pressure and infrastructure failure. He suggested that delays in shipping operations could trigger irreversible damage to energy transport systems.
Iranian officials dismissed that assessment, arguing that the strategy is politically motivated rather than technically grounded.
Market Reaction and Price Surge
Oil markets have responded sharply to escalating geopolitical risk. Brent crude climbed above $126 per barrel earlier this week, while West Texas Intermediate futures rose past $110, marking one of the strongest energy rallies in recent years.
Traders have cited multiple drivers behind the surge, including uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, ongoing military signaling in the region, and expectations of prolonged supply disruption. Analysts note that even short-term interruptions in Middle Eastern exports can significantly tighten global supply due to limited spare capacity.
Airline executives have also begun adjusting forecasts. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby reportedly told staff that fuel planning models now assume crude could reach $175 per barrel under extended disruption scenarios, with prices unlikely to fall below $100 before 2027.
Background
Tensions between Iran and the United States over energy exports and sanctions enforcement have repeatedly influenced global oil markets. A similar escalation occurred in June 2019, when attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz temporarily disrupted shipments and pushed Brent crude higher by more than 4% in a single day, according to market data at the time.
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Leadership Context
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, 64, has served as Speaker of Iran’s Parliament since 2020. He previously commanded the IRGC Air Force and served as Mayor of Tehran from 2005 to 2017. Known for his security establishment background and engineering training, he remains one of Iran’s most influential political figures.
His latest remarks come amid reported internal tensions within Iran’s security and political leadership structure, where coordination between civilian institutions and military-linked bodies has faced increasing scrutiny.
What’s Next
Oil traders and policymakers are watching for further signals on US enforcement actions related to Iranian crude shipments and maritime routes. Any expansion of restrictions or disruption in export channels through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to remain a key driver of price volatility in global energy markets over the coming weeks.
