The International Monetary Fund has warned that rising food and energy prices, sparked by the conflict in Ukraine, could lead to “social upheaval” in Africa.
The COVID-19 pandemic has already slowed economic growth in most nations south of the Sahara, and the damage will be magnified by rising cereal and fuel prices, according to a report released on Thursday.
“The war in Ukraine has generated a substantial spike in energy and food costs,” the Fund said in its annual Regional Outlook for Africa. “This might jeopardise food security in the region, boost poverty rates, worsen economic inequality, and possibly lead to civil unrest.”
The IMF estimates that African countries’ GDP growth in 2021 was 4.5 percent, somewhat better than the predicted 3.7 percent, but that it will decrease to 3.8 percent in 2022.
The IMF’s African section chief, Abebe Aemro Selassie, told AFP he was “extremely concerned” about the dual impact of increasing food and fuel costs, which is particularly felt in the vast majority of African countries that do not export oil or gas.
“This is a laser-like shock that is directed at the poorest,” he remarked.
“Increases in fuel prices feed into transportation costs, and people offering goods and services will raise their pricing as a result of higher input costs,” he explained.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on April 8 that food prices rose 12.6 percent between February and March, reaching their highest levels since the index was introduced in 1990. The previous high point occurred in 2011.
The price of wheat was highlighted in the IMF report.
For 85 percent of its wheat consumption, Africa is reliant on imports, with Tanzania, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Mozambique being particularly reliant.
Imported wheat, rice, and corn, collectively known as maize, account for more than 40% of calorie intake in Botswana, Lesotho, Mauritius, and Cape Verde, according to the IMF.
Food insecurity is already prevalent in conflict-torn Sahel states, Madagascar, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, according to the report. Experts have cautioned that the Ukraine crisis could exacerbate the current situation.
When the latest big food crisis arose in March 2008, so-called “food riots” erupted in Africa, most notably in Senegal, as well as in portions of Asia and the Caribbean.
When presenting the FAO’s most recent report, Qu Dongyu noted there were parallels between then and now, citing strong increases in food, fuel, fertiliser, and transportation. He did, however, emphasise the pandemic’s and the Ukraine war’s current worsening effects.
In comparison to the 2008 financial crisis, Selassie raised concerns about the financial state of African countries in 2022.
“There were many more countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2008-2009 who were in a better budgetary position to absorb the shock,” he said. “This time, with public debt levels as high as they are in many nations, that room for manoeuvring is much smaller.
“The international community must step forward to provide as much assistance to countries as feasible,” he said.
