Pakistan is looking for different ways how to permanently exit dependence on the International Monetary Fund once its current $7 billion bailout ends in 2027, as policymakers warn that without deep reforms, the country risks sliding back into yet another program.
The government has begun internal discussions on crafting a credible post-IMF strategy focused on building external buffers and boosting exports, reported Express Tribune.
According to the report, a high-level meeting was recently held to examine whether Pakistan can sustain its economy without the IMF “umbrella” after September 2027, when the existing facility is set to expire.
An assessment by the Planning Commission warns that, in the absence of urgent reforms to build sufficient foreign-exchange reserves and develop complete value chains to support exports, Pakistan could be forced into another arrangement with the Fund.
Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal told Tribune, ‘We recommended that if we are to make the current IMF program the last one, then we need to commit ourselves to $63 billion in exports by 2029; otherwise, we will face an external sector gap.’”
Officials said the internal assessment assumes that as the country moves from stabilization to a growth phase, the current-account deficit could temporarily widen to just under 2% of gross domestic product, or more than $10 billion per year. That would create additional external financing needs of roughly $4 billion in fiscal year 2027-28, $5.5 billion in 2028-29 and another $3 billion in 2029-30.
According to the Planning Commission, Pakistan can sustain itself without Fund support and manage a projected external financing requirement of more than $12 billion from 2028 to 2030, but only if deep-rooted reforms are implemented quickly.
The internal assessment suggests that during 2028-31, additional gross financing needs could exceed $12 billion and would have to be met by lifting exports by a further $4 billion, attracting an extra $4 billion in remittances and securing around $3 billion in new foreign direct investment, with the remaining gap covered through agricultural import substitution.
The same assessment concludes that Pakistan can still avoid what would effectively be a 27th IMF program if it builds strong fiscal and external buffers. For now, it remains vulnerable due to weak reserves and high external financing pressures.
The debate over long-term economic stability has intensified following recent public statements by the State Bank of Pakistan and the Special Investment Facilitation Council, which have questioned the effectiveness of the country’s prevailing growth model.
Both institutions have highlighted the limited impact of existing plans on the macroeconomic outlook and the persistence of heavy dependence on the IMF and other official creditors.
Three-stage implementation plan
In response, the Planning Commission has proposed a three-stage implementation plan anchored in its “Uraan Pakistan” 10-year framework. The first phase, starting next year and running to 2027, focuses on reforms in fiscal management, the energy sector, governance, human resource development and export alignment, laying the foundation for subsequent stages.
The second phase, envisioned for 2029-2032, focuses on utilizing investment as a catalyst for growth, with an emphasis on industrialization, export expansion, technology adoption, and agricultural modernization. The third phase targets a transition toward what planners describe as a “techno-economy” driven by high-quality, productivity-led growth.
Officials say the Planning Commission believes Uraan Pakistan, if fully implemented, could help keep inflation low, maintain economic growth above 6% and raise exports enough to build durable external buffers.
However, the plan, which aspires to turn Pakistan into a $1 trillion economy by 2035, has been criticised for lacking concrete operational detail and an effective strategy to deliver those targets.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has instructed the Planning Commission to develop a results-based strategy that translates the plan into measurable outcomes, with the explicit objective of permanently ending the country’s reliance on IMF programs, said the report.
