Saudi Arabia and Iran announced that they would reëstablish diplomatic relations after seven years of severed ties. The two nations pledged to reopen their embassies and also agreed to begin cooperating in areas such as security and trade. But what Saudi-Iran deal means for the Middle East?
The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran which is often used as a symbol of the broader tensions between Sunni and Shiite Muslims has been a key feature of politics and conflict in the Middle East.
Both have been involved in proxy fights in Yemen, Lebanon, and elsewhere. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia launched an intervention in the hope of restoring a government overthrown by Iranian allies; in Lebanon, the Saudi government forced the resignation of the Lebanese Prime Minister, in 2017, a move thought to be aimed at containing Hezbollah, an Iranian ally.
Almost as significant as the agreement itself is that it was brokered by China, which has sought to expand its influence in the region.
Why did this deal happen now?
It’s a reflection of China’s increased importance in the Gulf and in the Middle East more generally. Iran is feeling somewhat isolated in the region, and it sees more pressure coming from the United States and Israel on the nuclear issue.
That’s necessarily why Saudi Arabia was willing to agree to this now, but it could be why China stepped in to try to prevent some escalation on the nuclear issue. But, even if the Saudi government is less apt to support an American-Israeli strike on Iran regarding the nuclear issue, that might not be enough to stop it.
Has Washington been snubbed?
The United States has welcomed the accord, but one can’t help feeling that the Biden administration is annoyed and surprised by the hype China’s diplomacy has received, and by the criticism from those who say that Beijing has stolen a march on the United States and taken advantage of Washington’s acrimonious relationship with Saudi Arabia.
Others have argued that, unlike China, the United States can’t be a credible mediator because it has played favorites in both the Iran-Saudi rivalry and the competition between Israel and Iran.
But the argument that this is a major defeat for the United States is overblown. If the Saudi-Iran deal actually defuses tensions and opens up a pathway to end Yemen’s nightmare, that would be a welcome development. Talk of a U.S. withdrawal from the region or the United States without regional influence is silly.
