Why are tensions escalating on the Belarus-Poland border? Following an alleged incursion by Belarusian military helicopters, Poland is sending additional troops to its border with Belarus.
According to the Polish government, fighters from the Wagner mercenary group have been moving toward the border from Belarus.
According to Poland’s government, two Belarus military helicopters flew at a low altitude about two kilometers into its territory in the Bialowieza region on August 1.
At the time, Belarusian armed forces were conducting exercises near the border.
Its government denied any “border violations by Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters,” calling the accusation an “old wives’ tale.”
Residents of Bielowieza have shared photos of a Mi-8 helicopter and a Mi-24 helicopter with Belarusian markings that they say flew over the town on social media.
The serial numbers on the helicopters were matched to those seen at the nearby Machulishchi airfield in 2018.
This military incursion follows thousands of illegal border crossings into Poland from Belarus.
According to Poland, Belarus has been encouraging people from the Middle East and Africa to travel to Belarus and cross the border illegally since 2021.
Even though there are fewer crossings now than two years ago, Poland’s border guard says 19,000 migrants have tried to cross the border so far this year, and 16,000 did so last year.
Why are tensions escalating on the Belarus-Poland border?
Poland’s government has called Belarus’ strategy “hybrid warfare”.
Following the failed mutiny last June by mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner group, a number of its troops have moved into Belarus.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said a group of 100 Wagner fighters was on their way to Grodno, a city in northwestern Belarus near the Polish border, and called the situation “increasingly dangerous.”
He warned that Wagner fighters in Belarus could enter Poland disguised as migrants or as Belarusian border guards, assisting more illegal migrants to cross.
According to Belarus’ defence ministry, Wagner troops are training Belarusian troops at the Brestsky camp in the country’s south, about 10 kilometres from the Polish border.
“Being mercenaries, its troops could create disturbances on the border which Russia and Belarus could not be directly blamed for,” says Dr Barbara Yoxon, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Lancaster.
Why is this border region so sensitive?
The Suwalki Gap marks the border between Poland and Lithuania.
This 60-mile (95-kilometer) stretch of land also connects Belarus to the heavily fortified Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
Many military analysts see the Suwalki gap as a potential flashpoint area if Nato countries and Russia go to war.
The Baltic republics – Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia – are worried that if Russia and Belarus use military force to close this gap, they will be cut off from their Nato allies in Europe.
“This is a very narrow choke-point,” says Dr Yoxon. “Russia and Belarus together would find it easy to block Nato from sending reinforcements to protect the Baltic states.”
Few military analysts believe that these alleged incursions indicate that Russia is aiming to attack the Baltic republics.
However, says Professor Malcolm Chalmers from the think tank, the Royal United Services Organisation: “It’s partly an exercise by Russia and Belarus to test the water and see how Nato might respond, or not respond, to incursions into Nato territory.”
In recent years, Russia and Belarus have signed a number of military treaties. Belarus has allowed Russian troops to cross its border into Ukraine and has allowed Russia to station tactical nuclear missiles on its territory.
According to Dr. Anais Marin of the international affairs think tank Chatham House, the alleged incursions were most likely planned by Russia in order “to ensure that Belarus remains an adversary of Poland and Nato, and a firm partner of Moscow’s.”
Poland’s response
In response to migrant crossings from Belarus two years ago, Poland reinforced its border with Belarus with tall metal fencing, thermal cameras, and spotlights.
The government sent an additional 1,000 troops to the border in July to guard against Wagner fighter incursions, and it has recently announced that it will send 1,000 more.
However, some political analysts believe that Poland’s politicians may be exaggerating Wagner and Belarus’s threats in order to appear tough on security issues ahead of elections.
