The Indo-Pacific has become the most dynamic region in the context of geopolitics in the century. Central and a major variable in this changing equation is the growing rivalry between the two largest powers in Asia, China and India. Both are ancient civilizations and fast-developing economies, but their competition over influence, share of resources, security, and diplomatic leverage has become one of the major characteristics defining regional politics. The strategic rivalry between China and India in the Indo-Pacific has far-reaching implications not only for their bilateral relations but also for regional stability versus the multilateral institutions as their arena and global systemic implications.
Historical Context
China and India have had a long, complicated history that has endured, with many periods of cooperation and competition almost becoming dangerous to conflict. The Sino-Indian war in 1962 left unresolved border disputes with mutual mistrust and severely strained ties between countries bilaterally. Although the development of economic interdependence started in the 1990s, heightened geopolitical tensions, especially from the 2017 “Doklam standoff” to the bloody Galwan Valley clash in 2020, have hardened perceptions on both sides.
This has now culminated in a new theatre for their rivalry: the Indo-Pacific region extending from the eastern coast of Africa to the western shores of the United States. Competition for national interests and strategic reach has intensified in maritime security, connectivity projects, and regional influence.
China’s Indo-Pacific Strategy
China’s strategic vision is exemplified in its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) started in 2013. China wishes to build a community of shared destiny, with large infrastructure investments stretching over Asia, Africa, and Europe–critics see such investments instead as a method of extending political influence and securing economic dependency.
In the maritime theatre, China’s “String of Pearls” strategy seeks to build port facilities and maintain strategic bases in the Indian Ocean – in Gwadar (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), and Djibouti. The modernisation and growth of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) on blue-water capabilities to secure sea lanes and expand the maritime space of China.
China also engages regional institutions such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and reaches out to Pacific Island nations, further illustrating its aim to foster a new economic and security order in the Indo-Pacific. China’s assertiveness in disputed waters such as the South China Sea and intensifying pressure on Taiwan also reaffirm its aim to establish itself as the preponderant power in the region.
India’s Indo-Pacific Outlook
India’s response has been strategic and measured. With the “Act East Policy” in mind and projecting its own vision of a “Free, Open, and Inclusive Indo-Pacific”, India builds partnerships to counterbalance China’s assertiveness.
On one hand, India has moved forward in security and economic cooperation with ASEAN countries, Japan, Australia, and the United States. It has also actively engaged in multilateral initiatives such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) with the United States, Japan, and Australia, which seeks to uphold the freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region, a rules-based order, and maritime security.
Furthermore, in order to enhance economic and strategic access, India is investing in regional infrastructure connectivity projects such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway as well as Chabahar Port in Iran. Concurrently, it shows New Delhi’s intention to provide alternatives for countries unwilling to accept China’s overwhelming economic option.
India is modernizing its navy, creating new strategic partnerships with countries like France and the UAE and joining in more exercises on joint operation (e.g., Malabar, Milan) as possibilities to assert against the presence of a potential adversary in the maritime domain. These maneuvers mark New Delhi’s growing recognition of maritime power as an indispensable factor in its aspirations to rise globally.
Several key flashpoints mark the Sino-Indian rivalry in the Indo-Pacific:
- Indian Ocean Region (IOR)
India considers the Indian Ocean to be its strategic backyard, an essential lifeline for trade and energy imports. It raises red flags in New Delhi over an increasing Chinese naval foothold in the IOR with anti-piracy operations, submarine patrols, and port building. To counter this, India has built up its maritime capability while pursuing weapons partnerships with island nations like the Maldives, Seychelles, and Mauritius”.
- Border Tensions and the Himalayas
Though geographically outside the maritime Indo-Pacific grid, the unresolved border conflict in the Himalayas has a direct bearing on the Indo-Pacific security dynamics. Lack of trust and greater militarization of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) happened after the 2020 Galwan clash, in which soldiers from both sides died in hand-to-hand combat. This land rivalry provides fodder for wider strategic calculations and strengthens India’s position in Indo-Pacific diplomacy.
- Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives
In recent years, both China and India have been competing for influence among the smaller South Asian countries. Infrastructure investments under China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Sri Lanka and Nepal have led to much speculation of `debt diplomacy’ supporting military access given preferential contracts to China. Historically, India has remained the major power in the region and is trying to reassert its influence through various means of aid, trade, and cultural diplomacy.
- QUAD vs. Chinese-led Alliances
The revival of the QUAD has irked Beijing, which sees it as an `Asian NATO’ aimed against China. While trying hard not to provoke China unnecessarily, India uses QUAD as an instrument to foster regional stability and democratic ideals. As an offset to that, China has enhanced military cooperation with Pakistan and strategic relations with Russia.
Impacts on Regional Stability
There lies an additional layer of complication to the China-India rivalry in the Indo-Pacific. For one side, it is promoting the regional powers to modernize militaries and embark on newer strategic partnerships. The other side brings in the dangers of` miscalculation, arms race, and proxy conflicts.
Smaller nations frequently find themselves in a dilemma where they must weigh their economic dependence on China against security ties with India or the Western powers. For example, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines prefer to present themselves as independent players trying to balance investments and military access offered by both India and China.
Additionally, the South China Sea disputes and increasingly vigorous military drills in the contested water zones present further regional instability. China, unlike India, holds no direct claim, and whereas India is far from claiming anything over the South China Sea, it maintains a view that Asean and QUAD associates, along with India, in support of free navigation are in opposition to China’s vast claims.
The Possibilities of Cooperation
Despite all their bitter rivalry, there too exist realms for China-India cooperation. Climate change, counterterrorism, global health, and economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic are all areas ripe for collaboration. Both countries are members of institutions, such as BRICS, SCO, and G20, which provide a forum for dialogue and collaborative endeavors.
They are collectively interested in promoting stability in Afghanistan, counter-piracy actions in the Indian Ocean, and stable global supply chains. A rules-based order in the region and mutual economic prosperity could provide strong reasons for peaceful reconciliation of their rivalry.
Thus, a major objective will be to build up bilateral relations through confidence-building measures, diplomatic consultations, and mechanisms for crisis communications, even though the recent disengagement along some sectors of the LAC is a sign for the positive; certainly, there needs to be a great deal of trust-building in the future.
Conclusion
The rivalry of China and India in the Indo-Pacific is carving out the geopolitical theater of the region. Though competition is unavoidable considering the clearly diverging interests and strategic ambitions on either side, the challenge will be to manage such tensions in a manner that will not destabilize the region. There is a fine balance to be struck by both countries- pursuing their respective national interests without escalating conflict and promoting peace in the region.
This would imply that in a multipolar Indo-Pacific, collaboration rather than zero-sum rivalry offers a key to stability. Regional institutions and multilayered interaction, coupled with respect for international norms and laws, would prevent the China-India competition from degenerating into conflict and instead inject a new era of strategic wisdom and balanced diplomacy into Asia.
