Reasons for Wheat Crisis

O’ Human Being
These Birds Flying
Do You See What They Do?
They don’t store any food with greed
And they don’t die of hunger
Has anyone see flying birds dying of hunger?
Its greedy human that stores food
It’s humans that die of hunger.
(Baba Bulleh Shah)

Global Scenario: Wheat is a grass extensively cultivated for its seed, a cereal grain that may be a global staple food. The various species of wheat collectively make up the genus Triticum the maximum widely grown is not unusual wheat (T. aestivum). The archaeological record indicates that wheat became first cultivated within the regions of the Fertile Crescent around 9600 BCE.

According to the report of 2014 Wheat is grown on more land area than any other food crop (220.4 million hectares or 545 million acres).

In 2020, world production of wheat was 761 million tonnes, making it the second most-produced cereal after maize. Since 1960, world production of wheat and other cereal crops has tripled, and the global demand for wheat is expected to increase due to the unique viscoelastic and adhesive properties of gluten proteins, which facilitate the production of processed foods, the consumption of which is increasing due to the global process of industrialization and westernization of the diet.

The FAO Wheat Report 2021 states that Pakistan is one of the leading wheat-producing countries in the world with an annual production of 25 million tons. However, wheat production has faced several challenges in recent decades due to several factors such as water scarcity, poor soil management, climate change and insect pests.

In addition, the FAO report “Wheat Supply Chain – Pakistan” shows that the country’s wheat supply chain faces significant inefficiencies and challenges such as low yields, inadequate storage and poor transportation infrastructure, which lead to significant post-harvest losses.

The FAO report also pointed out that wheat is the most important crop in Pakistan and any disruption in its production and supply chain could lead to food shortages and increase food prices, affecting the country’s food security.

In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war has a major impact on global food security. The crisis led to food shortages, especially in relation to grain. It soon banned India from exporting wheat, which destabilized the world market and is the main factor in driving up the price of wheat.

Green Revolution: More than 17,000 years ago, humans collected and started eating plant seeds. After grinding the husk, early people chewed the seeds raw, dried, or boiled. Wheat originated in the “Cradle of Civilizations” in the valley of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, in what is now Iraq.

Historically, wheat production in Pakistan can be divided into three distinct periods (1947-65), Before the release of semi-dwarf wheat (1966-76) the “Green Revolution” period when highYielding varieties with chemical fertilizers were rapidly adopted at about two-thirdsTotal wheat area; and from 1977 to the present, the post-Green Revolution period in which high-yielding varieties with the disease. Resistance continued to cover the main wheat area through coordinated efforts at the national level.

Essentiality of wheat: In Pakistan, wheat is the main staple food cultivated on a large scale. Due to this reason, Pakistan falls in the ten major wheat-producing countries of the world in terms of the area which is under cultivation. Wheat is the essential diet of the population as it constitutes 60% of the daily diet of the common man in Pakistan and the average per capita consumption is about 125kg annually and occupies a central position in agricultural policies of the government.

Role of wheat in GDP:

In 2021, agriculture contributed around 22.67 percent to the GDP of Pakistan, 18.8 percent came from the industry, and over half of the economy’s contribution to GDP came from the services sector.

According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan, it contributed 22.7% to the economy’s GDP in 2022. It employs 37.4% of the labor force. It is the main source of food supply for the people. Wheat is considered an important crop for maintaining a healthy diet and dietary staple.

It accounts for 7.8% of value addition in agriculture and 1.8% of GDP (GOP, 2021-22). Wheat production has declined from 27,464 tonnes in 2021 to 26,394 tonnes in 2022. However, wheat crop acreage and yield have been steadily declining over the past four years except for 2021, when yields were very low.

Self-reliance is the primary objective of every present government to meet the demand for wheat in the country. It has become a challenge for agricultural experts and policymakers to suggest practical and cost-efficient solutions to meet the demand. Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC) estimates that annual per capita consumption of 125 kg of wheat as a cereal constitutes an average of 60% of the average citizen’s daily diet (Mahmood, 2021).

It shows that most of our population is dependent on wheat, and its deficiency creates an awkward situation that will lead to political uncertainty, massive erosion of foreign reserves, and a rise in wheat prices. Moreover, to meet the requirement for wheat, the government imports it from other countries. Currently, the government is importing 750,000 tons of wheat from Russia (Donley, 2023). There are various reasons for the wheat shortage, such as a reduction in cultivable areas, poor irrigation systems, environmental factors etc.

Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-2022

Wheat Crisis: The wheat crisis due to the gap between demand and supply further increased due to the catastrophic floods in Pakistan in August 2022 that not only adversely affected the country’s infrastructure but also destroyed crops, including wheat causing the risk of food shortage in the country.

Six million people facing acute food insecurity in Pakistan. Experts also suggest that food production in the region has been widely disrupted by the floods caused by higher-than-normal monsoon rains. Nowadays Pakistan is facing its worst-ever flour crisis with parts of the country reporting a shortage of wheat and stampedes reported from several areas in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, and Balochistan provinces.

Reasons for Wheat Crisis:

• The government’s failure to estimate wheat imports can be identified as an important factor leading to the crisis.

• According to media reports, the clash between the federal and Punjab governments was responsible for the ongoing wheat crisis in Pakistan.

• The Punjab Food Department was unable to properly estimate and record the requirement of wheat for import.

• The floods in 2022 have affected the agriculture sector adversely. It resulted in the loss and damage to inputs such as fertilizers, stocks, machinery at the household level, and irrigation infrastructure, which may reduce the area for the plantation of crops and affect the crop development process.

• One of the reasons for the low production of wheat is the sowing of poor-quality seeds. The country has only 46% certified seeds and 25 million acres of land under wheat cultivation. 1.1 million tons of certified wheat seeds are held by the government and some private sector organizations. About 54 percent of the country lacked quality seeds, resulting in reduced wheat production (Daily Times, 2022).

• In Pakistan, food pricing policies include input subsidies and price support mechanisms. These tools have negative effects such as, if set below this equilibrium price, there will be a food shortage, and if above it, it will cause a food surplus. Foreign investors will be reluctant to invest as it will affect their profits. This may increase inequality as powerful farmers will benefit more than low-income farmers. If the government gives a subsidy on one crop, i.e., vegetables and fruits, farmers will not choose to plant other crops (Fatima, 2022).

• Pakistan used to import 39% of its wheat from Ukraine. The war between Russia and Ukraine has distorted wheat imports not only in Pakistan but across the world. Hence, the price of wheat in the international market has increased by up to 60% (RSIL, 2022).

• A wheat crisis has arisen due to hoarding of wheat. The provincial government is unable to take strict action against hoarders.

How to overcome the wheat crisis?

• Even though government often highlights the challenge of malnutrition in its policy statements, it has done little to address it. An analysis shows that Pakistan needs an estimated investment of Rs.193 billion over 7-8 years to tackle the challenge of malnutrition. If the annual direct and indirect subsidy provided by the government to the agriculture sector, which is Rs.450 billion, the money can be made available if it decides to reduce by about 10 percent.

• The decision to import wheat in the wake of the crisis on zero duty has, therefore, come under heavy criticism as people want to know the status of wheat reserves lying with PASSCO. What will happen to domestic production if imported and domestic wheat hit the market at the same time?

• Breed and develop new varieties of wheat: Scientists and researchers can work on developing new varieties of wheat that are more resistant to environmental stresses such as drought, pests, and diseases. These new varieties can help increase crop yields and improve grain quality.

• Improve farming practices: Farmers can adopt better farming practices like crop rotation, pruning, and the use of natural fertilizers and pesticides. These practices can improve soil health, increase productivity, and reduce the need for environmentally harmful and synthetic inputs.

• Promote sustainable agriculture: Governments, NGOs, and other organizations can promote sustainable agriculture that supports small farmers and helps them adapt to climate change. This can include providing training and education, improving access to credit and markets, and investing in rural infrastructure such as irrigation systems and storage facilities.

• The Provisional Government should take strict actions against wheat hoarders.

• Government should provide subsidies.

• Government should make successful estimates for wheat import.

Conclusion:

Without replacing this mechanism with one more helpful in ensuring the food security and nutritional needs of the poor, no government will ever find a lasting solution to the problem. So wheat is becoming a political commodity rather than the essential commodity.