When Punjab drowns, Sindh must not sleep. Water does not stop at provincial borders, nor does it respect political boundaries. The floods sweeping through Punjab today are not just Punjab’s disaster—they are Sindh’s warning.
Torrential rains combined with sudden water releases from India have triggered the current crisis. According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), more than two million people have been affected and over 760,000 residents have been evacuated in recent weeks. Nearly 3,900 villages have been submerged, with 33 confirmed fatalities in just one week. Climate experts link this to abnormal monsoon patterns, as Punjab received 26 percent more rainfall than the long-term seasonal average.
While Punjab reels, Sindh stands dangerously exposed. Fragile water management, an agriculture-heavy economy, and weak urban drainage make the province highly vulnerable to the waters now pushing downstream. Sindh’s lifeline—the Indus River and its canals—is also its greatest risk. With embankments weakened and the Sukkur Barrage already under stress, the danger is mounting. Sindh Irrigation Minister Jam Khan Shoro has warned that if flood peaks cross 600,000 cusecs at Guddu and Sukkur, embankments will be “under extreme threat.”
Agriculture is equally at risk. Sindh contributes nearly a third of Pakistan’s rice and sugarcane production, but heavy flooding threatens to wipe out harvests. Waterlogging in lower Sindh has already begun, raising fears of devastation for farmers. For a province where millions rely directly on agriculture for their livelihoods, a flood surge would not only destroy crops but also deepen poverty and food insecurity.
The urban threat is no less serious. In August 2020, record-breaking rains submerged large parts of Karachi, leaving dozens dead and millions without electricity. In 2022, heavy downpours again forced officials to declare calamity-hit zones. This August, several hours of torrential rain paralyzed the city once more, with NDMA confirming that more than 40 percent of Karachi’s neighborhoods faced flooding during a single spell. Karachi’s mayor himself admitted that the city’s drainage system has not kept pace with rapid urban growth, turning every rainstorm into a flood event.
Sindh cannot afford complacency. To its credit, the provincial government has allocated Rs15 billion for embankment strengthening, while NDMA has expanded early warning systems in flood-prone districts. International partners, including the World Bank, have pledged $213 million under the Sindh Resilience Project to upgrade drainage and disaster response. But experts warn these measures are not enough. “Punjab is only the first chapter of this year’s flood story. Sindh must prepare for the chapters yet to come,” NDMA spokesperson Ahmed Kamal recently cautioned.
This is the decisive moment. Sukkur, the backbone of Sindh’s irrigation system, is operating with infrastructure designed nearly a century ago. NDMA simulations show that if flows at Sukkur exceed 600,000 cusecs, protective embankments in Khairpur, Larkana, and Thatta could collapse within days, displacing hundreds of thousands. Karachi too remains vulnerable: despite a Rs36 billion drainage master plan announced in 2021, less than one-third has been implemented. The repeated inundation of Korangi, North Karachi, and Saddar is proof of how unprepared the country’s largest city remains.
Moving forward, the response must be evidence-based and urgent. Sindh must prioritize completing barrage rehabilitation at Sukkur, Guddu, and Kotri, enforcing floodplain zoning, and accelerating Karachi’s drainage upgrades. Investments in crop insurance and climate-resilient seed varieties are essential to protect agriculture. Flood preparedness cannot remain seasonal—with climate change, it must become year-round policy.
Punjab’s disaster is not just a tragedy. It is a forecast of what Sindh may face tomorrow. The choice is stark: treat these floods as a wake-up call, or repeat them on an even greater scale.
