How worrying is a Russia-Kim Jong Un alliance? The reported plans of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to visit Russia this month have alarmed the US and its allies.
According to US officials, he and President Vladimir Putin plan to discuss the possibility of North Korea providing Moscow with weapons to support its war in Ukraine.
An arms deal between North Korea and Russia appears to make perfect commercial sense.
For the Ukraine war, Moscow desperately needs weapons, specifically ammunition and artillery shells, and Pyongyang has plenty of both.
On the other hand, sanctioned North Korea is in desperate need of funds and food. More than three years of border closures, combined with the breakdown of talks with the US in 2019, have left the country more isolated than ever.
But, beneath the surface, it opens the door for Pyongyang and Moscow to collaborate more closely.
How worrying is a Russia-Kim Jong Un alliance?
The US has been warning about a possible arms deal between the two countries for some time, but a meeting between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin at the highest levels takes this to the next level.
While the US appears to prioritize preventing North Korean weapons from reaching the frontlines in Ukraine, the concern here in Seoul is over what North Korea would receive in exchange for selling its arms to Russia.
Mr Kim will be able to extract a high price because Russia is in a desperate situation.
Perhaps he could ask Russia for more military assistance. Yesterday, South Korea’s intelligence service was briefed that Mr Shoigu had proposed joint naval drills between Russia, China, and North Korea, similar to those conducted by the US, South Korea, and Japan, which Kim Jong Un despises.
In the future, Mr. Kim may be able to call in Russian weapons.
The most concerning request Mr Kim could make is for Mr Putin to provide him with advanced weapons technology or knowledge to assist him in making breakthroughs with his nuclear weapons programme.
He is still learning key strategic weapons, most notably a spy satellite and a nuclear-armed submarine.
However, officials in Seoul believe cooperation on this level is unlikely, as it could end up being strategically dangerous for Russia.
Mr Yang, an expert in military strategy and weapons systems, added: “For 15 years we’ve built up a network of sanctions against North Korea, to stop it from developing and trading weapons of mass destruction. Now Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, could cause this whole system to collapse.”
As sanctions have tightened, North Korea has become increasingly reliant on China to turn a blind eye to those who violate sanctions and provide food aid. For the past year, Beijing has refused to sanction North Korea for its nuclear tests at the UN Security Council, allowing it to develop its arsenal without serious consequences.
North Korea serves as a useful buffer zone between Beijing and US forces stationed in South Korea, so it pays to keep Pyongyang afloat.
However, Pyongyang has always been wary of relying too heavily on China alone. With Russia on the lookout for allies, Mr Kim has an opportunity to diversify his support network.
“During the Cold War, North Korea was playing the Russians off the Chinese, very similar to how children play parents off each other,” said Dr Bernard Loo of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
And, with Russia in such desperate straits, the North Korean leader may believe he can extract even greater concessions from Moscow than from Beijing. Mr Putin may agree to remain silent in the face of a North Korean nuclear test, but this may be too much for Chinese President Xi Jinping.
However, whether the meeting will take place remains uncertain.
Mr. Kim does not leave North Korea lightly or frequently. He is paranoid about his security and considers trips abroad to be dangerous. He rode an armoured train on his last international trips, to Hanoi to meet Donald Trump in February 2019 and to Vladivostok to meet Vladimir Putin in April 2019. The journey from Beijing to Hanoi took two long days.
It is unclear how private the two leaders intended their meeting to be, but it is possible that the US hopes that by making it public, it will spook Mr Kim and thus scuttle both the meeting and the potential arms deal.
Dr Loo doesn’t think Mr Kim would have much wiggle room, however: “Given the reports about three-way military exercises, it would be difficult to cancel these kinds of events without everyone ending up with egg on their face.”
